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電動車電池路線之爭倒向三元 4
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GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered The launch of a new Buick electric vehicle has been put on hold until a new battery supplier can be identifiedA Buick Velite 6 displayed at the Beijing auto show in April. PHOTO: WANG ZHAO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES By  Trefor Moss Updated Aug. 29, 2018 10:22 a.m. ET SHANGHAI— General Motors Co.’s GM -0.85% plans to ramp up electric-vehicle production in China were set back after the auto maker determined the Chinese-made batteries it intended to use failed to meet its own performance and safety standards during testing. GM was set to enter production next month on its plug-in hybrid Buick Velite 6, a local variant of the Volt, with a pure-electric version due to follow early next year. That launch schedule has now been postponed, with internal tests showing the battery, supplied by A123 Systems, didn’t meet GM’s quality standards, according to a person familiar with the situation. EV batteries are complex components that can’t easily be switched, spelling lengthy delays in getting the Velite 6 into production. A GM spokeswoman declined to comment on the situation, but said the company still intends to launch 10 EVs in China by 2020. However, that target was announced over a year ago, long before the battery supply problem arose. “GM’s plan is to deliver 20 EVs globally by 2023,” the spokeswoman said. “In China, we are on track to introduce 10 new energy vehicles between 2016 and 2020. Given those two goals, all-electric vehicles like the Velite 6 battery electric vehicle are obviously our priority.” A123 Systems didn’t respond to a request seeking comment. The Livonia, Mich.-based company was bought out of bankruptcy by Chinese auto-parts giant Wanxiang Group Corp. in 2013, and it operates a battery plant in the eastern city of Hangzhou to supply the China market. Auto makers operating in China are scrambling to fulfill a Chinese government order requiring them to start building electric vehicles next year. Without a battery, GM is one of those in danger of missing Beijing’s target. China’s timetable is “difficult to achieve” for longtime manufacturers of gasoline cars being forced to make the rapid switch to electric, said Jing Yang, an associate director at Fitch Ratings. “The situation is different company by company,” she said, with some players well set to meet the target, and others floundering. Though seen as an EV market leader in the U.S., where it sells the Chevrolet Bolt and Volt electric cars, GM has had difficulty translating that advantage into success in China, the world’s biggest EV market. GM originally planned to use batteries from South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. But in 2016, China mandated that auto makers use batteries from a list of approved suppliers, all of which are Chinese. China-owned Volvo Car Group, however, is an exception: It is allowed to use batteries using LG Chem-licensed technology in its locally built cars. Auto makers cite the exclusion of foreign batteries as an example of Chinese government protectionism that handicaps both foreign battery firms and the auto makers they supply, while handing advantages to local rivals. Those complaints are among the factors fueling the U.S. trade actions against China. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology didn’t respond to a request for comment. The Chinese are on course to buy more than 1 million electric vehicles this year—nearly all of them built by local auto makers. Riding the boom are fast-growing Chinese battery suppliers such as BYD Co. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. , now among the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery companies. In its rush to develop battery technology, China risks shortcomings in quality and safety performance, said Thomas Barrera, president of LIB-X Consulting, a battery consultancy based in Long Beach, Calif. “There are concerns with the quality of Chinese-manufactured cells and batteries,” he said. “Chinese cells are very attractive because they’re inexpensive, but people may not realize that these cells may not have gone through the necessary qualification testing before going to market.” China’s EV policies have created a dilemma for foreign auto makers: They are obliged to build electric vehicles and use Chinese batteries, but they can’t compromise their global standards and use components in which they lack confidence—especially batteries, which have a history of catching fire. While most foreign auto makers have publicly expressed confidence in their ability to meet the EV quota, few have explained in detail how they will achieve a target requiring electric vehicles to make up roughly 3%-4% of their 2019 output. Some are making tangible progress. On Monday, Nissan Motor Co. started production of its first made-for-China electric car, while Volkswagen AG unveiled its first pure-electric car for China in April. Ford Motor Co. —which began developing electric vehicles later than rivals such as GM—has one plug-in hybrid model on the market in China, and plans to launch its first pure-electric car by the end of 2019. GM launched its first Chinese pure-electric car, the Baojun E100, last year. It has sold more than 22,000 units of the budget EV—which starts at about $6,900—despite only making it available in a handful of locations so far. However, GM, which builds roughly 4 million cars in China a year, would need to build about 100,000 E100s next year to meet the quota, assuming other models fail to come onstream. There is a backstop for auto makers that miss the 2019 target: The regulations allow them to transfer EV credits earned in 2020, and use them to make up any 2019 shortfall. If they are still noncompliant, auto makers will then be forced to buy EV credits from rivals through a credit-trading system, which the authorities have yet to articulate in detail. Auto makers bringing electric vehicles to market early can benefit from generous subsidies, but those are due to end in 2020. “Traditional auto makers will no doubt struggle to remix their portfolio to EVs,” said Bill Russo, the founder of Automobility, a Shanghai consultancy. And without subsidies, the struggle to build enough electric vehicles will soon become a battle to make the costly machines profitable, he said. https://www.seglenergy.com.tw/en/hot_287405.html GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered The launch of a new Buick electric vehicle has been put on hold until a new battery supplier can be identified 456f5da2b493c45c47107207e011f004.jpg A Buick Velite 6 displayed at the Beijing auto s 2021-03-10 2022-03-10
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◎ 財新記者 吳靜 ? 李雪娜 文wujing.blog.caixin.com | lixuena.blog.caixin.com 8月15日, 一則消息把近半年股價波瀾不驚的東風汽車(600006.SH)推到投資者眼前。





在新能源汽車鋰電池中使用的正極材料,目前主要有磷酸鐵鋰、三元材料、鈷酸鋰和錳酸鋰幾種。磷酸鐵鋰能量密度較低,每公斤120Wh 左右,但熱穩 定性最好,安全性較高,不易爆燃,採用它的國內代表車企是比亞迪。三元材料能量密度可做到每公斤150Wh,甚至200Wh,採用它的電動汽車更輕,續航里程更長,但是安全性受到質疑,代表車企是特斯拉,以及日產聆風等國外車企。

三元材料和磷酸鐵鋰的路線之爭由來已久。自2004年引入中國以來,磷酸鐵鋰一直是中國動力電池的主流路線,錳酸鋰和三元材料使用者寥寥可數。但特斯拉在2013年一季度的盈利,瞬間放大了三元材料的優勢。中銀國際的報告認為:“ 之所以是特斯拉而非聆風讓市場熱捧三元材料,與其採用全球供應鏈採購,從而能拉動整個行業發展有很大關係,同時特斯拉確實很會營銷。”一方面是特斯拉的成功,打消了很多車企的擔憂。另一方面,2012年10 月16日, 財政部、工信部、科技部等三部委,曾公佈《關於組織申報2012 年度新能源汽車產業技術創新工程項目的通知》。通知給出的技術創新目標是2015年電池單體的能量密度達到每公斤180Wh 以上(模塊能量密度達到每公斤150Wh 以上)。德聯資本投資總監劉 賾向財新記者表示,三部委提到的密度要求,肯定不會暗指採用那個材料,但用“ 能量密度”一衡量,目前只有三元材料能達到。

上述通知並非強制性要求,但給車企提出了能量密度的要求,加之特斯拉效應,國內車企紛紛宣佈轉向。在2014 年北京車展上,江淮、奇瑞、北汽、衆泰等廠家都表示,在最新的車型中將採用三元材料。這種情況也引起多位業內人士的擔心。一位鋰電資深人士表示,特斯拉厲害之處在於採用松下提供的電芯,但獨創了電芯的封裝和電池管理系統。國內很多車廠和電池廠奔著補貼而去,但現在國內電池廠商能否提供一致性強的電芯,做好封裝和電池管理系統,都還存疑,安全性很難評估。


2013年一季度,虧損十年的特斯拉首度盈利1120萬美元,股價一度從年初的30 多美元漲到100美元以上。最吸引市場的點莫過於,特斯拉Model S 續航里程最高可達500公里。

隨後一份特斯拉產業鏈深度研究報告傳開。在其複雜的供應鏈中,只有電池組的分級管理系統(BMS)是特斯拉的,其它部件由全球供應商提供。其採用的8142個高能量密度的18650電池體系來自于松下的NCA 鎳鈷鋁,即三元材料。

“ 三元材料和磷酸鐵鋰一樣存在了很多年,並非特斯拉首創使用,全球銷量最大日產聆風也是三元材料。”中銀國際新能源汽車領域一位分析師表示,但由於特斯拉採用開放的全球供應鏈,它的成功對整個行業的拉動性極強。

相比之下,聆風繼承了日企的保守作風,它的電池材料由日本企業AESC (日產和日本電氣股份有限公司的合資企業)提供,還屬於自產自銷,這種模式對行業帶動性小,很難被資本市場追捧。


奇瑞EQ、北汽紳寶要做圓柱形三元材料, 江淮IEV5也在改三元電芯。

“ 忽然一下子就多起來了。”比克電動汽車產品拓展部部長蔣小娟形容三元材料市場爆發時說。比克一直堅持三元材料路線,最近訂單大增,蔣小娟介紹說,除大衆、寶馬等老客戶,大部分新訂單 來自于此前甚少合作的國內車企。



美國的情形也差不多。磷酸鐵鋰路線在美國從2012年起漸漸“ 沒落”。美國通用汽車2007年時宣佈與美國電池廠商A123 Systems 合作,用磷酸鐵鋰電池開發純電動汽車。2010年通用雪佛蘭Volt 最後採用了LG 化學提供的三元正極材料。

“ 三元材料與磷酸鐵鋰之爭已經持續多年。2012年前國內都學習美國的磷酸鐵鋰路線,一看連A123都破產了,風向就開始變了。”上述分析師表示。




奇瑞新能源汽車副總經理方運舟曾表示,三元材料電池是未來電動汽車動力系統的發展趨勢,未來所有奇瑞的電動汽車車型都會採用三元體系電池。一位電池廠商的人告訴財新記者,奇瑞想做圓形柱的三元材料,和比克、LG、力神都談過,目前要上市的EQ 採用的是萬向提供的方形三元材料。

江淮也不甘落後。江淮汽車宣佈,在其最新電動車型和悅IEV5中,採用的是天津力神提供的三元材料,預計續 航里程最長可達200公里。

北汽新能源電驅動工程部部長俞會根則表示,公司純電動車型主要採用磷酸鐵鋰,也在研發三元材料電池。據第一電動網此前統計,國內已上市車型中,除了奇瑞QQ3EV 使用鉛酸電池,其他車型主要採用磷酸鐵鋰。但即將上市的13款車型中,比亞迪、東風、長安等五款車型依然使用磷酸鐵鋰,東風啓辰、長安福特佳躍使用錳酸鋰電池,奇瑞、江淮等四個車企的六款車型,紛紛 採用三元材料。

但讓很多業內人士擔心的是,國內電池企業在三元材料上的生產能力,和日韓企業有較大差距。高工鋰電研究院院長張小飛博士稱,越是複雜的三元材料,對工藝要求越高,元素比例、分子結構、正、負極材料以及隔膜電解液等都需要系統性開導。“ 除電池本身質量好外,特斯拉最核心的技術優勢是電池管理系統。”他說以日產聆風為代表的市面上電動汽車電池大多採用便於排列設計的扁平狀大電池,而特斯拉卻突破性做到了將直徑18毫米、高65毫米的圓柱形鋰電池用在汽車上。讓這些類似于筆記本電腦的小型電池安全高效工作,特斯拉靠的是電池管理系統。

購買一個電池系統測試平台需7萬-8萬歐元,對一般國內的電池開發企業來說,太貴,它們的做法是交由缺乏電池技術管理的整車廠參與。電池管理系統上的差異,使得國內很多汽車廠家只敢模仿聆風,做成軟包或方形,即便採用三元材料做成圓型電池包裝,亦難在芯片的一致性方面達到特斯拉的水平。“ 因為三元材料單只芯片很小,多個芯片組合,對一致性的要求很高”。


“ 並不因為技術達不到,就不做。”動力電池市場爆發,令一些原本做數碼 鋰電池的生產企業也紛紛向動力電池轉移。高工鋰電數據顯示,隨著電動汽車市場的爆發,動力電池銷售額同比增長58%,達到39億元,儲能電池銷售額同比增長37%,達到16億元,且在下半年這一數字還會繼續擴大。與之對比,數碼鋰電池銷量增長放緩,只有7.3% 。

市場機會在,但動力電池和數碼鋰 電池完全是兩種技術工藝,一位電動車研發人員稱,“完全是兩個世界的事情”。

該專業人士稱,動力電池和數碼鋰 電池是兩個維度,動力電池只有0和1,而數碼電池則有多個技術梯度,做得最好的可賣給三星、蘋果,其次可賣給華為和小米,再其次賣給中興和酷派。但動力電池只有好與差區分,差的只能砸掉,沒有其他可能。


三元材料的安全是個問題,特斯拉跑車也經常遭遇質疑。“ 車企更多將此歸結為可以解決的技術問題。”一位業內人士說。




比亞迪董事局主席王傳福在接受財新記者採訪時表示,相對於三元材料,磷酸鐵鋰更安全,目前比亞迪電動汽車全部用磷酸鐵鋰電池,是在綜合考慮了安全、成本、壽命後的選擇。但未來比亞迪不排除會在小型電動汽車上引用能量密度更高的材料電池,“ 不一定是三元”。

王傳福說,“ 幾種技術我們都有,會根據不同市場需要進行對應的匹配。”王傳福稱,比亞迪最新研究出的磷酸鐵錳鋰電池,可將能量密度提高60% 以上,接近三元材料的水平。隨後,比亞迪董秘吳經勝表示,該款電池計劃于明年實現量產,將主要應用于比亞迪的自產車輛。

張小飛認為,如果比亞迪真能做到磷酸鐵錳鋰量產,可謂是電池行業的一大進步創新。“ 這非常了不得,它可以滿足所有中型及以下車型一般意義上電動汽車的基本性能需求。比如續航里程350公里以下的都可滿足。”他說。



不僅如此,應用環節中的成本下降將更加明顯。“ 一方面,提高能量密度有助于減少車載電池的數量。另一方面,由於電池自重較重,電池減少還能有效降低車身重量,從而進一步節約能耗。”一位業內人士說,“ 目前新能源車中電池的成本占比超過了三分之一,降低的成本將直接反映在車價和用車成本中。”但資本市場人士對此存疑。上述中銀國際分析師表示,加錳在學術界爭議很大,擔心很多性能可能會變化。即便放在小微的電動車上使用,也只有比亞迪和一些科研機構玩,不像三元材料,很多人一起做,整個產業的成熟度會更快提升。

國金證券最近的一份研究報告分析認為,磷酸鐵錳鋰短期應用難度較大,目前國際上也還沒有具備磷酸鐵錳鋰規 模化生產能力的企業,只有Phostech 和大阪水泥實現了中試性小批量生產。雖然比亞迪公司宣稱明年可以量產,困難仍然不小。


其量產難度表現在兩個方面:一是電解液的配套問題。因為磷酸鐵錳鋰的電壓為 4.1伏,需要專門針對磷酸鐵錳鋰開發特種電解液,既要耐高壓,又要抑制錳的溶解,還要兼顧低溫性能,難度較大。二是電池的特徵改變。磷酸鐵鋰一旦用上錳,其長壽命、功率特性、倍率特性,低溫性能等已有優勢都會消失。如果僅僅為了21% 的理論能量密度上升,有些得不償失。

不過,比亞迪也並不像過去一樣非磷酸鐵鋰不可,王傳福最近在接受財新記者採訪時表示,比亞迪生產的數碼 電池多是三元材料,“ 如果市場有需要,我們也會考慮多元化技術路線”。


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