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特斯拉搶先入局定調,比亞迪被迫跟進,寶馬另闢蹊徑,電動車電池市場劇變在即,電池漲勢難擋! 4
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GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered The launch of a new Buick electric vehicle has been put on hold until a new battery supplier can be identifiedA Buick Velite 6 displayed at the Beijing auto show in April. PHOTO: WANG ZHAO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES By  Trefor Moss Updated Aug. 29, 2018 10:22 a.m. ET SHANGHAI— General Motors Co.’s GM -0.85% plans to ramp up electric-vehicle production in China were set back after the auto maker determined the Chinese-made batteries it intended to use failed to meet its own performance and safety standards during testing. GM was set to enter production next month on its plug-in hybrid Buick Velite 6, a local variant of the Volt, with a pure-electric version due to follow early next year. That launch schedule has now been postponed, with internal tests showing the battery, supplied by A123 Systems, didn’t meet GM’s quality standards, according to a person familiar with the situation. EV batteries are complex components that can’t easily be switched, spelling lengthy delays in getting the Velite 6 into production. A GM spokeswoman declined to comment on the situation, but said the company still intends to launch 10 EVs in China by 2020. However, that target was announced over a year ago, long before the battery supply problem arose. “GM’s plan is to deliver 20 EVs globally by 2023,” the spokeswoman said. “In China, we are on track to introduce 10 new energy vehicles between 2016 and 2020. Given those two goals, all-electric vehicles like the Velite 6 battery electric vehicle are obviously our priority.” A123 Systems didn’t respond to a request seeking comment. The Livonia, Mich.-based company was bought out of bankruptcy by Chinese auto-parts giant Wanxiang Group Corp. in 2013, and it operates a battery plant in the eastern city of Hangzhou to supply the China market. Auto makers operating in China are scrambling to fulfill a Chinese government order requiring them to start building electric vehicles next year. Without a battery, GM is one of those in danger of missing Beijing’s target. China’s timetable is “difficult to achieve” for longtime manufacturers of gasoline cars being forced to make the rapid switch to electric, said Jing Yang, an associate director at Fitch Ratings. “The situation is different company by company,” she said, with some players well set to meet the target, and others floundering. Though seen as an EV market leader in the U.S., where it sells the Chevrolet Bolt and Volt electric cars, GM has had difficulty translating that advantage into success in China, the world’s biggest EV market. GM originally planned to use batteries from South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. But in 2016, China mandated that auto makers use batteries from a list of approved suppliers, all of which are Chinese. China-owned Volvo Car Group, however, is an exception: It is allowed to use batteries using LG Chem-licensed technology in its locally built cars. Auto makers cite the exclusion of foreign batteries as an example of Chinese government protectionism that handicaps both foreign battery firms and the auto makers they supply, while handing advantages to local rivals. Those complaints are among the factors fueling the U.S. trade actions against China. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology didn’t respond to a request for comment. The Chinese are on course to buy more than 1 million electric vehicles this year—nearly all of them built by local auto makers. Riding the boom are fast-growing Chinese battery suppliers such as BYD Co. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. , now among the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery companies. In its rush to develop battery technology, China risks shortcomings in quality and safety performance, said Thomas Barrera, president of LIB-X Consulting, a battery consultancy based in Long Beach, Calif. “There are concerns with the quality of Chinese-manufactured cells and batteries,” he said. “Chinese cells are very attractive because they’re inexpensive, but people may not realize that these cells may not have gone through the necessary qualification testing before going to market.” China’s EV policies have created a dilemma for foreign auto makers: They are obliged to build electric vehicles and use Chinese batteries, but they can’t compromise their global standards and use components in which they lack confidence—especially batteries, which have a history of catching fire. While most foreign auto makers have publicly expressed confidence in their ability to meet the EV quota, few have explained in detail how they will achieve a target requiring electric vehicles to make up roughly 3%-4% of their 2019 output. Some are making tangible progress. On Monday, Nissan Motor Co. started production of its first made-for-China electric car, while Volkswagen AG unveiled its first pure-electric car for China in April. Ford Motor Co. —which began developing electric vehicles later than rivals such as GM—has one plug-in hybrid model on the market in China, and plans to launch its first pure-electric car by the end of 2019. GM launched its first Chinese pure-electric car, the Baojun E100, last year. It has sold more than 22,000 units of the budget EV—which starts at about $6,900—despite only making it available in a handful of locations so far. However, GM, which builds roughly 4 million cars in China a year, would need to build about 100,000 E100s next year to meet the quota, assuming other models fail to come onstream. There is a backstop for auto makers that miss the 2019 target: The regulations allow them to transfer EV credits earned in 2020, and use them to make up any 2019 shortfall. If they are still noncompliant, auto makers will then be forced to buy EV credits from rivals through a credit-trading system, which the authorities have yet to articulate in detail. Auto makers bringing electric vehicles to market early can benefit from generous subsidies, but those are due to end in 2020. “Traditional auto makers will no doubt struggle to remix their portfolio to EVs,” said Bill Russo, the founder of Automobility, a Shanghai consultancy. And without subsidies, the struggle to build enough electric vehicles will soon become a battle to make the costly machines profitable, he said. https://www.seglenergy.com.tw/en/hot_287405.html GM’s Electric Dream in China Suddenly Looks Underpowered The launch of a new Buick electric vehicle has been put on hold until a new battery supplier can be identified 456f5da2b493c45c47107207e011f004.jpg A Buick Velite 6 displayed at the Beijing auto s 2021-03-10 2022-03-10
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法國為履行《巴黎協議》,在2017 7 月宣布 2040 年禁售汽柴油車,隨後英國政府也跟進,強調為了降低有害二氧化氮的排放量,同樣希望在 2040 年前達成禁售汽柴油車的終極目標。而其他更早宣布燃油車即將出局的國家,還包括 2030 年禁止柴油車路權的德國、荷蘭、挪威,以及在 2025 年全面禁止銷售柴油車的挪威。


另外,作為全球最大汽車市場的中國則是設定在 2020 年達到電動車年銷量 200 萬輛。因此,電動車超越燃油車的那一天始終會來到,全球電動車的銷售量只會一路向上。但面對純電動汽車的持續火熱,一個很直接的問題擺在了人們面前:市場上的鋰電池還夠用么?

「最近電池很缺貨,因為電動車的需求很強,在電池業者產能有限,連 PC、手機產品的電池供貨都受到影響,」一位台灣電子業代工廠的高階主管對 DT 君透露。從行業人士的幾句話就能看出電動車市場的熱度有多高。

由於一台電動車大約平均會使用 5000 顆電池芯,相較於一般筆記本電腦使用 6 8 顆電池芯,規模龐大許多倍,隨著車廠拿貨積極,三元鋰電池今年下半年需求恐急,導致 IT 類產品的電池的供應也受到排擠。


圖丨一輛特斯拉 Model S 所搭載的單個電芯超過 7000 顆

業界人士指出,目前電動車電池的報價為大約在 11001200 人民幣/千瓦時(kWh),今年是呈現持平走勢,但值得注意的是,三元鋰電池使用到的「鈷」、「鎳」原材料都創下近年來價格新高,因此合理推估明年上半年電池將出現漲價趨勢。


過去車廠對於選擇磷酸鐵鋰電池還是三元材料鋰電池(簡稱三元鋰電池)的糾結其實已經有了答案,根據高工產業研究院(GGII)數據統計顯示,今年 1~11 月元電池裝機電量 11.51GWh,同比增長 141%;磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機電量 11.56GWh,同比下滑 20%。在電池能量密度要求明年確定會有進一步提升的情況下,三元電池裝機總量有望進一步擴大。

甚至連以磷酸鐵鋰電池起家的比亞迪也在近期宣布,從 2018 年開始所有乘用車都將使用三元鋰電池,目前看來,三元鋰電池在電動車電池的規格及標準上搶下了主導的地位。


在電動車動力電池部分,磷酸鐵鋰電池、三元鋰電池因優缺點不同,過去各有擁護者,磷酸鐵鋰電池的技術最初是從美國和加拿大開始發展,具有代表性的廠商像是加拿大的Phostech以及美國的 A123 Systems,它們分別掌握了磷酸鐵鋰電池正極材料的絕大多數專利,後來 A123 Systems 在 2012 年被中國汽車零部件巨頭萬向集團收購,而 Phostech 則在 2014 年賣給了英國有色金屬巨頭 Johnson Matthey。另外,中國的比亞迪也是以磷酸鐵鋰電池起家。磷酸鐵鋰電池的優點是可充電次數多,使用壽命可以長達 5 年以上,是早期電動車主要採用的電池技術。


但為什麼三元鋰電池可以獲得車廠的青睞,主要原因就在於能量密度高(energy density)。隨著汽車行業不斷追求電池「能量密度」的提升,電池的能量密度越大,單位體積內存儲的電量越多,用戶充一次電可以駕駛的距離自然就越長。能量密度是電動車選用電池的關鍵。國務院發布的《中國製造 2025》中提出, 2020 年我國動力電池要達到能量密度 300Wh/kg2025 年達到 400Wh/kg 的目標。以這個標準來看,磷酸鐵鋰電池是很難達到的。

三元鋰電池的技術領導者則是以日韓為主。之所以稱為三元,是因為採用三種元素:鎳鈷錳(NCM)或是鎳鈷鋁(NCA)作為正極材料。一直以來,三元鋰電池在 IT 行業廣泛使用,像是筆記本電腦、平板、智能手機的電池都是,也因為在 IT 行業的應用行之多年,不論是在技術上跟價格上都已經達到很成熟的階段,所以車廠希望將此技術轉移至電動車上,其中最積極的就是特斯拉。

前特斯拉電池技術總監Kurt Kelty(2017 年 8 月已於特斯拉離職)過去就曾公開表示,特斯拉嘗試了市面上超過 300 種電池后才選擇三元鋰電池,第一個理由就是能量密度更大,穩定性、一致性佳,另一個很重要的就是可以有效降低電池系統的成本。特斯拉旗下首款車型 Roadster 使用的是 18650 鈷酸鋰電池,第二款車 Model S 就開始使用鎳鈷鋁三元正極材料的 NCA 鋰電池。


丨特斯拉 Model S 使用了松下提供的三元鋰電池

NCA 就是特斯拉的夥伴松下(Panasonic)帶起來的技術,但因工藝難,必須使用特殊的製程方法,所以能生產出好品質產品的業者並不多。而韓系廠商則多是發展 NCM 電池,不過,因為看到 Panasonic 提供特斯拉 NCA 鋰電池,其供電能力已獲得驗證,於是三星旗下的 Samsung SDI、LG 集團旗下的 LG 化學近期也相繼表示,考慮推出能夠供電動車使用的 NCA 鋰電池。

再加上特斯拉採用的是三元鋰電池,其高市佔率以及在電池管理技術的領先,都讓特斯拉在電動車電池的技術規格上掌握了相當關鍵的話語權,因此許多大廠都紛紛轉向,就連比亞迪也放棄固守磷酸鐵鋰電池,近期宣布可能除公共交通領域還會繼續使用磷酸鐵鋰電池外,從2018 年開始所有乘用車都將使用三元鋰電池。並且將在青海擴建一個擁有 10 GWh 三元鋰電池產能的電池工廠。

「當特斯拉將三元鋰電池的量產化提前實現后,產業就被帶往這個方向走,電動車電池的規格標準就大致成形了,車用考量的是能量密度跟續航力,三元鋰電池比較適合,而『定置型』(電池位置相對固定,如電網儲能電池)市場則是考量壽命,那就是磷酸鐵鋰。」專門研究能源行業的調研機構 EnergyTrend 資深研究經理呂理舜如是說。



目前全球電動車電池前五大業者包括寧德時代(CATL)、比亞迪、Panasonic、Samsung SDI、LG Chem。電池絕對是電動車最重要的關鍵零組件,不僅安全性要求高,成本比重也高,大約佔一台電動車物料清單(BOM)的 3~4 成。

不論是鎳鈷錳(NCM)或是鎳鈷鋁(NCA)電池,都有兩項重要的原料:鎳與鈷,國際金屬市場上,鈷價格持續創新高,甚至來到了近五年的高點:12 月鈷的期貨報價維持在 75000(美元/公噸)左右,市場預期明年上半年價格仍會維持在高位,另外,鎳的部分也上漲不少,倫敦金屬交易所(LME)鎳價在今年 11 月一度創下兩年新高。





為了提高電動車的續航力里程,業界可採取的做法一是放置更多電池,但如此就會佔據更多的車體空間,因此另一個比較實際可行的方式就是想辦法提高電池的能量密度,甚至研發新一代的電池技術,因此儘管三元鋰電池成為了電動車電池目前的主流,但已經有眾多大公司投入研發「全固態電池」(Solid-State Battery)」。


蘋果在 2015 年底獲得了一項與全固態電池充電技術相關的專利,讓外界開始注意到這個技術。一直到近期,車廠布局全固態電池的消息紛紛浮上檯面,像是豐田(Toyota)目前開發固態電池的團隊規模已經達到 200 人左右,目標是在 2020~2025 年將其導入到汽車中。

另外,由知名汽車設計師 Henrik Fisker 新成立的豪華電動汽車公司 Fisker 最近則遞交一份專利,號稱電動車充電最快只需要 1 分鐘時間,續航里程高達 500 英里,不過,Fisker 也預估在 2023 年之後才能投入量產





全固態電池全部都採用固態材料,沒有液體外漏的問題,所以防爆,安全性高,另外,充電時間也比現有的鋰離子電池更快,更重要的是,具備高能量密度、大容量化特性,現有的電動車液態鋰離子電池的能量密度大約在150~250Wh/kg,而固態電池在實驗室的能量密度能夠達 400Wh/kg 左右,符合電動車追求高續航力的需求,有助於電動車提升行駛里程,例如目前電動車一般充一次電可以行駛 400 公里,採用固態電池后就可能大幅提高到 600 公里,因此被視為是下一代電池。

量產最快得等到2020 年之後

以鋰電池的發展歷史來看,是從筆記本電腦跟手機等IT 應用已經很成熟了才慢慢擴張到汽車領域,但呂理舜認為,全固態電池會是汽車行業來主導,因為應用在電動車上會比在 IT 產品上更有顯著的效益,對 IT 業者來說,續航力在 IT 產品上固然重要,但更追求功能的創新才會是比較大的賣點。

因此,可以預料全固態電池將會由車廠積極介入研發,推動其在電動車上的應用,事實上,目前的發展也是如此,包括德國BMW 日前宣布與美國全固態電池領頭企業 Solid Power 結盟,力求讓全固態電池效能跨越高性能電動車的要求門檻。另外,日產汽車(Nissan)、本田汽車(Honda)、豐田集團旗下的豐田織機(Toyota Industries Corp)都正在研發全固態電池。


圖丨寶馬在官方博客中宣布將與 Solid Power 聯合研發全固態電池

而先前宣布將投入電動車開發的吸塵器品牌Dyson 也表示,預計在 2020 年推出的一系列純電動汽車將會採用固態電池,並預計投入 10 億英鎊用於研發和製造固態電池,其中包括收購了初創公司 Sakti3。但是就在不久前,負責其固態電池技術的 Sakti3 CEO Ann Marie Sastry 已經離職,雖然目前尚無法得知是否將影響 Dyson 的固態電池製造進度,但仍為這項技術帶來了一點不確定性。

一項新技術要走出實驗室總是不容易,「現在技術還不成熟,電池供應商也還沒有準備好,量產時間會在 2020 年以後了,」呂理舜說,加上車廠自身評估的時間表,想要看到採用固態電池的電動車上路的時間應該會是在 2022、2023 年較有機會,不過可以肯定的是,電池是未來零碳生活的關鍵,電池研究人員可望持續向外界展現新的突破。



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